Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Iran's Boast May Mean Little

Iran's boast that it has joined "the club of nuclear countries" by enriching uranium may rattle the Western world. But diplomats and experts familiar with the program say Iran still is far from producing any weapons-grade material needed for bombs and may be exaggerating its own progress.
"The Iranians are deliberately trying to hype this up," David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said Wednesday.
He called the step that Iran announced with great fanfare Tuesday _ the use of 164 centrifuges to enrich small amounts of uranium _ merely a small and expected advance.
By trumpeting its successes so forcefully, Iran may be trying to apply political pressure _ aiming to convince the U.N. Security Council that its nuclear capability is so far along that no sanctions can dissuade it. The Security Council has ordered Iran to stop all enrichment by April 28, and the chief U.N. nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, heads to Iran for talks Friday to try to resolve the international standoff.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned ElBaradei on Wednesday to urge him to reinforce Western demands, and she called on the Security Council to consider "strong steps" against Iran. The United States wants sanctions because it fears Iran aims for nuclear weapons.
"This is not a question of Iran's right to civil nuclear power," she said. "This is a question of, ... the world does not believe that Iran should have the capability and the technology that could lead to a nuclear weapon."
Iran, apparently undeterred, said it would push ahead to dramatically expand its program, which it insists is only to generate electricity for peaceful purposes. It plans to install 3,000 centrifuges at one site by late 2006, then expand to 54,000 centrifuges, its deputy nuclear chief said.
More at the Washington Post

Storm gathering in Iran

The Iranian authorities and elite are busy transferring their bank accounts from Europe to Asia, or to Switzerland, whose territory is usually outside sanctions. These are multi-billion sums. Many analysts see this as Tehran's precaution ahead of a potential armed clash with the U.S. and its allies, which may take place if the attempt to settle the situation around Iran's nuclear program falls through.
Apparently, the Iranians have learnt their own lessons well and remember the sad experience of neighboring Iraq, which was attacked for its alleged attempt to hide the weapons of mass destruction from the world community.
For all the differences between the two regimes and their political and economic potentialities the Washington-drafted plan of action against Iran is strangely similar to the U.S. scenario for Iraq. But there are some indications that the U.S. strategists have lost some of their confidence since the cruel lesson in Iraq. This fact creates an additional chance for a diplomatic settlement of the problem.
More at the RNIA

IRAN SHOWDOWN TESTS POWER OF 'ISRAEL LOBBY'

One month after the publication by two influential international relations scholars of a highly controversial essay on the so-called "Israel Lobby," their thesis that the lobby exercises "unmatched power" in Washington is being tested by rapidly rising tensions with Iran. Far more visibly than any other domestic constituency, the Israel Lobby, defined by Professors John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago and Stephen Walt, academic dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, as "the loose coalition of individuals and organizations who actively work to shape U.S. foreign policy in a pro-Israel direction," has pushed the government -- both Congress and the Bush administration -- toward confrontation with Tehran.Leading the charge has been a familiar group of neo-conservatives, such as former Defense Policy Board (DPB) chairman Richard Perle and former CIA director James Woolsey, who championed the war in Iraq but who have increasingly focused their energies over the past year on building support for "regime change" and, if necessary, military action against Iran if it does not abandon its nuclear program.
More at TMCnet

Russia Downplays Iran's 'Good News'

Russian experts are downplaying Iran's "good news" to have joined the world's nuclear technology club.
Iran's announcement that it had processed uranium is no cause for alarm, said Viktor Mikhailov, former Russian minister of atomic energy.
"Largely a bluff," said Vladimir Yevseyev, a senior researcher at the Moscow-based Center for Global Security.
"A fairy tale," declared Yevgeny Velikhov, a politically connected nuclear scientist.
Russia's assessment matters because President Vladimir Putin's government has positioned itself as in intermediary in the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. Russia has offered to supply Iran's civilian nuclear program with nuclear fuel jointly processed in Russia, but so far, Iran has not accepted the offer
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that Iran's announcement would not bolster its negotiating position with the West.
"A solution of the Iranian problem from the position of strength does not exist. All European Union countries agree with this," Lavrov said. "If there are any such plans after all, they will fail to produce a solution, but will merely create a highly explosive situation in the Middle East."
More at the Washington Post

No quick action on Iran seen in divided UN council

Iran's declaration that it has enriched its first batch of uranium is unlikely to spur the United Nations to act sooner than May on the question of Iran's nuclear ambitions, diplomats said on Wednesday.
Following Iran's announcement, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the council, which last month called on Tehran to suspend all enrichment work, would need to take up the issue again.
But several council members said the U.N. body had agreed in a statement last month to wait for further action until International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei makes his report at the end of April.
"When we have this report, we will react," French U.N. Ambassador Jean-Marc de la Sabliere told reporters.
Nor did the Iranian announcement convince all council members that it was time to take a tougher line on Tehran.
"I think people are still talking about diplomatic efforts," Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya said when asked whether China felt it was now time for the council to step up its efforts on Iran.
Last month's council statement on Iran's nuclear work was nonbinding.
More at Reuters

West will burn in nations’ fury

“Those who insulted the Iranian nation and set back Iran’s movement for progress for several years must apologise”, Ahmadinejad said at a rally in the eastern town of Rashtkhar. His comments were aired on state television and carried by the official news agency.“You must bow down to the greatness of the Iranian nation”, he said, addressing the West. He added that if the United States continued to seek to use “bullying” tactics then “every nation of the world” would chant “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”.“If you do not return to monotheism and worshipping god and refuse to accept justice then you will burn in the fire of the nations’ fury”, Ahmadinejad said.He once again accused the West of launching a “psychological war” against Iran.
More at Iran focus

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